11:00 PM Weather Update is sponsored by The Labascus Armory.
Good Tuesday evening. We had some beautiful weather earlier today, I hope you was able to get out & enjoy it because changes are on the way. The calm before the storm....... as they say.
Let’s talk flooding potential first.
Rain chances will be low tonight into your early morning hours Wednesday, around 20-30% chance. As we get into Wednesday, the surface cold front will push its way into parts of Kentucky. Rain chances increase to 90-100% & should be fairly consistent throughout the day. NWS Louisville is forecasting rain totals from 2.5” to 3.5” for some areas. This will in return cause excessive runoff which in return will cause some localized flooding. Rain will continue into Thursday as rain before transitioning over to freezing precipitation & snow (for parts of the state). I will be monitoring updates for the possibility of a Flood Watch being issued.
After our flooding potential, comes this winter storm I have been tracking. NWS has already issued a Winter Storm Watch to take effect from Thursday morning into Friday morning including counties in South Central, Central, Northern, & Northwestern Kentucky. As of now the farthest south that watch extends is in Pulaski County.
A surface cold front will slowly move into parts of the state overnight Wednesday & continue to push across into Thursday morning. Models depict a sharp surface temperature gradient with the front & precipitation will transition from rain to a mix of wintry precipitation (sleet/freezing rain/snow). The front will continue to push its way across the state into Thursday night when it will clear the region. Temperatures will be lucky to get at 32 degrees as the high on Friday, Friday night lows will be in the teens.
Timing of Precipitation Transition:
Timing is not set in stone even though models continue to update. The most recent trends are showing the cold front arriving faster than prior updates. If the cold front does indeed arrive faster, there will be a quicker transition from rain to wintry precip. The front could slow down as it moves across the region, which could cause increased freezing rain & sleet rates. Keep in mind most of the snow will stay to our North/Northwest. Areas between the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkway and areas from the parkway to I-64 could see a spike in the freezing precip. After all this, the front will work its way out of the region early Friday morning.
Precipitation Types & Where:
Latest model runs (GFS & NAM) are showing a bit of a difference in who gets ice and who gets rain LOCALLY. Again most of the snow precipitation will be to our North and northwest.
Last run shows the GFS model depicting ice & rain for our local area. The NAM model depicts us getting less ice and more rain. If this system moves and goes more towards the GFS model, ice totals could be up to ½” for some places.
I am not saying this to cause hype or to make this system out worse than what it will be, but be safe than sorry folks.
Now is the time to get what you need from the grocery store (don’t be hoggish), get needed medications, generators, source of heat, update your emergency kits, make travel reservations as travel will be impacted for certain Thursday night into Friday. Just use common sense. Be sure to keep your mobile phones charged, have fuel in your vehicles, a source to receive the latest weather updates, etc.
I will continue to pass along updates as they come in. NWS will be holding not one but TWO conference calls tomorrow, so I will be sure to pass along the latest information here.
Also keep in mind, models have been going back and forth, like a game of tennis, in where exactly this line of ice will hit. These models WILL continue to change up until the day of this event. Winter weather is harder to follow & forecast compared to your thunderstorms.
Don’t forget to listen for weather updates on-air on 98.7 on your radio dial. You can also listen off of the free app Simple Radio and here on our website chasinthebuck.com. Of course if you’re big on social media following pages, be sure to follow us on there as well Classic Country 98.7 The Buck “WKDO”.
If you have any additional questions feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org